Convergence in Vietnam and EU Interests: A Harbinger of Indo-Pacific Order?

Keywords: Asia Program, Conflict Management, Diplomacy, East Asia, Energy & Resources, Governance, Indo-Pacific, Politics, Regional Security Cooperation in East Asia, Security & Conflict, Sino-Regional Relations, South Asia, Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs

Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son’s nearly back-to-back visits to the U.S. and China underscore Vietnam’s increasing penchant for delicate diplomacy amid the U.S.-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. Vietnam’s territorial disputes with China, particularly in the South China Sea (SCS), which Vietnam calls the East Sea, highlight the region’s geopolitical tensions. The ongoing disorder in the Indo-Pacific largely emanates from the SCS, posing significant challenges for Vietnam in maintaining order along its maritime borders.

Vietnam’s Strategic Diversification

Historically wary of major powers, Vietnam is diversifying its relations by seeking security and defense ties with Indo-Pacific partners such as the European Union (EU), India, and Japan. This diversification extends to Russia, despite its adversarial relationship with the transatlantic allies. Within Southeast Asia, the lack of unity, particularly in resolving disputes in the SCS, complicates regional multilateralism efforts. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), representing regional multilateralism, appears ineffective as China leverages its economic influence over some of its members.

The EU’s Geopolitical Interests in the Indo-Pacific

Europe’s recent reluctant rapprochement with China, labeling it a strategic challenge while maintaining economic engagements, mirrors Vietnam’s complex relations with China. Similarly, not all EU member states embrace the Indo-Pacific construct led by the U.S. Countries like France and Germany, while engaging in the Indo-Pacific, continue productive relationships with China. However, the EU’s increasing interest in the Indo-Pacific’s geopolitical dynamics suggests a potential for deeper engagement.

Potential Convergence of Policies

Given the geopolitical criticality of the Indo-Pacific, the EU and Vietnam—and by extension, ASEAN—could find greater convergence in their policies. This potential alignment arises from shared concerns over Chinese unilateralism, trade dependencies, and the broader Sino-U.S. contestation. For the EU, proactive members such as France, the Netherlands, and Germany understand the importance of regional perspectives and priorities in shaping European strategies and contributions to the Indo-Pacific.

Vietnam’s Position on the Indo-Pacific

Vietnam’s lack of a definitive Indo-Pacific tilt reflects a strategic balancing act. The region, stretching between the western Indian and Pacific Oceans, remains geopolitically pivotal. EU members’ increased focus on this region responds to Chinese unilateral actions and the need for balanced trade relations. Gradually, EU countries recognize that their Indo-Pacific policies must consider the perspectives and priorities of resident actors like Vietnam.

Conclusion

In the context of Indo-Pacific geopolitics, the convergence of Vietnam and EU interests could herald a new order. Vietnam’s strategic diversification and the EU’s proactive engagement in the region point towards a collaborative approach in managing regional security and economic dependencies. The shared interests in countering Chinese influence and fostering regional stability provide a foundation for deeper cooperation. As both Vietnam and the EU navigate their complex relationships with China, their strategic alignment could contribute significantly to a balanced and stable Indo-Pacific order.

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